Volume 12 Issue 4 December 31, 2008

The bears maintained their grip on the stock market as the fourth quarter of 2008 unfolded.

The fuel for the plunge in stock market prices in early October, was investors fretting about the financial bail-out package that congress rejected near the end of September.

However, when the bail-out package named " The Troubled Asset Relief Program" (TARP) was signed into law on October 3rd, most stocks continued their free fall until mid October.

The TARP program is supposed to be a financial rescue package to aid ailing financial institutions from the effects of the unraveling debt markets.

The TARP program is a 700 billion dollar rescue package. The first portion (tranche), immediately available, is 350 billion dollars. The second 350 billion dollars needs congressional approval.

The first 350 billion dollar tranche is supposed to be utilized to buy "Toxic Assets" (near worthless bonds) that many financial institutions were burdened with on their balance sheets.

It is theorized that if the U.S. Government relieved many stressed financial institutions from the burden of owning these toxic assets by selling them to the U.S. Government, that it would make all these insolvent financial institutions instantly solventŠ they could then again provide stressed out borrowers with more unsustainable debt.

Investors were unimpressed with the details of the TARP fueling the stock market in mid October to have the worst week in the 112 year history of the stock market.

Most economic indicators disseminated throughout October continued to depict the ailing U.S. and global economies, as job losses continued to mount along with

home mortgage foreclosures.

The election in early November electing Barack Obama who promises to stimulate the ailing U.S. economy with more dollars that the U.S. government doesn't have, did little to stem the slide of the stock market.

Near the end of November, most major stock market indexes neared their trough that they set in 2002 after the crash of 2000.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) did help the Bulls regain their grip on the stock market for a brief period when they lowered short interest rates to near zero on December 16th.

I remain extremely cautious as to what is ahead for the U. S. and global economies.

I remain committed to precious metals and cash as the core holdings for the portfolios that I manage on behalf of my clients.




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