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The bulls remained in charge
during early October as they
shunned the idea that the sub-
prime meltdown would con-
tinue for a long time to come.
The bears, however, did regain
control of the stock market in
mid October, and as such,
most major stock market in-
dexes continued to decline.
By the end of October, most
major stock market indexes
rebounded as stock investors
regained their courage in an-
ticipation of the regular sched-
uled meeting of the Federal
Reserves (Fed) on October
31st.
Investors anticipated a ½ per-
centage drop in the Federal
Funds rate at this important
meeting. They rationalized that
since the banks and financial
institutions were losing bil-
lions of dollars due to the
mortgage market meltdown,
that the Fed was sure to lower
short-term interest rates by ½
a percent at this October meet-
ing.
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The Fed though, disappointed
investors at this October meet-
ing. They only lowered short-
term interest rates by ¼ of a
percent, fueling the bears to
return, and triggering a mas-
sive sell-off which lasted until
the third week in November.
This stock market meltdown in
November was considered a
correction, or a decline of 10%
or more from a previous high.
Banks and brokerage firms
during October and November
continued to disseminate news
daily as to the billion-dollar
losses they sustained from in-
vesting in mortgage-backed
debt, primarily sub-prime.
Home builders also touted
their astronomical losses
throughout the last quarter of
2007.
The financial damage from
this mortgage-related melt-
down was not limited to the
United States.
Many foreign banks in Europe
also disclosed in the last quarter
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of 2007 that they were victims of
the mortgage meltdown in the
United States.
In contrast to the worldwide
mortgage meltdown, crude oil
continued to rise throughout the
fourth quarter and nearly
reached the one hundred dollar
benchmark by the end of 2007.
The "R" word [Recession] was
on the lips of many economic
pundits as 2007 came to a close.
2007 ended with the bears firmly
in control, as most major stock
market indexes continued to de-
cline well off their peaks set in
early October.
I remain committed to Energy,
Gold and Grain ETFs as the core
holdings of the portfolios that I
manage, on behalf of my clients.
These ETFs gave a significant
return to my clients in the fourth
quarter of 2007, and should still
capture upside returns as 2008
unfolds.
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