October started out with most major stock market indexes reversing their downward trend that they had set at the close of September. Investors continued to bet on an economic rebound by the end of 2003, and as such, kept bidding up stock prices higher and higher.
Ironically, the stocks that performed the best throughout 2003 were many companies that had little if any profits. That's right, if you had purchased American Airlines stock in March of 2003, a company on the verge of bankruptcy, you could have retired on the profits if you sold your stocks in October (over 1000% return.)
Investors forgot about the "quality of earnings" that they fussed about between the middle of 2000 and the end of 2002, and instead only fussed about not being left behind on the next stock market rally.
In a sense investors forgot all that they were supposed to have learned during the stock |
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market crash of 2000, that is, to be properly diversified and limit their weighting of speculative stocks that have little if any earnings or the potential for earnings growth ahead.
The bond market throughout October was range bound, with most bond yields somewhat lower (prices higher) than the yields set at the end of August.
Most economic indicators released throughout October depicted that the U.S. economy was improving. However, the labor market continued to remain in the doldrums. Many companies that were straddled with vast over-capacity were reluctant to hire new workers even as the demand for many goods and services strengthened.
With productivity gains in the U.S. economy rising 7% in the second quarter of 2003, many companies reaped bigger profits as their existing employees produced more goods and services, lowering their biggest |
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fixed cost, payroll.
Throughout November, most major stock market indexes remained range-bound. Investors took a pause to contemplate whether they had bid up stocks to far, to fast, since March of 2003, in anticipation that the U.S. economy would rebound.
The stock market was quite volatile throughout November, as each rally was followed by an equally strong sell-off. In a sense the bulls and the bears duked it out throughout November.
The bears got the upper-hand in mid November, as most major stock market indexes began a free-fall. However, the bulls regained the upper-hand as November came to an end.
The outcome of this duel was that most major stock market indexes finished November about where they had started it, albeit up significantly for 2003.
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