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The
stock market started out the second quarter with most
major stock market indexes rising significantly off their
lows set in mid March.
Investors were emboldened by the military success in Iraq
that the U.S. forces continued to achieve during April.
With every battle and victory the stock market continued
its upward ascent as investors theorized that it was the
uncertainty about the upcoming war in Iraq that had been
holding the U.S. economy hostage for the past few months.
Furthermore, investors prognosticated that when the War
in Iraq was over that the anemic U.S. economy would be resurrected
and as such, corporate profits would again be growing
at a robust pace.
This in turn would raise the prices of many stocks and reward
all these astute investors with windfall profits.
Stock market investors chose
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to
ignore the pervasive over- capacity and lack of pricing
power in many industries, the deteriorating labor
market, the impact of the terrorist threats worldwide, and
the record number of personal bankruptcies in the first
quarter of 2003.
Ironically, even though the global economies were actually
more anemic than the U.S. economy, many European stock market
bourses actually rallied more aggressively throughout April.
Investors cast caution to the wind and jumped on the European
stock market bandwagon with a frenzy.
Risk was not the focus of these investors even as suicide
bombings throughout the world continued to escalate throughout
April.
The bull market for bonds continued throughout the second
quarter of 2003. The biggest winner for the bond market
in the second quarter was the corporate bond market, with
the
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high
yield (junk bond market) performing the best.
Bond market investors ignored the weakened balance
sheets and the enormous debt loads that many public corporations
were straddled with from the go-go 90s.
This optimism by bond investors for corporate bonds in the
second quarter was a 180 degree turn-around from the last
two years when bond investors shunned all but the highest
credit quality bonds, punishing indiscriminately all issues
in the high yield bond market.
In reality however, the only positive for many cash strapped
public corporations over the past three months is that they
are now getting ready access to cash to stay alive in the
near future.
The jury is still out as to whether
the recent confidence of bond market investors
lending their
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